We’re about four weeks away from the 2020 edition of the Kentucky Derby. All of the major prep races ahead of Churchill Downs have now been completed, which means that we know who the main favorites will be, and we can start narrowing down the field. Tiz the Law and Art Collector won the Travers Stakes and the Ellis Park Derby, respectively, bringing the Derby prep season to a close.
Let’s take a look at the most recent ranking of the top ten, as ranked by the Lexington Courier-Journal with their odds to win, courtesy of JAZZ Sports.
Can Anyone Stop Tiz the Law? A Look at the Kentucky Derby Top 10
KD 2020 Betting Odds, according to JAZZ Sports
Horse Odds
Tiz the Law -200
Art Collector +450
Honor A.P. +800
Ny Traffic +2500
King Guillermo +2200
Dr Post +2500
Thousand Words +2000
Authentic +1000
Caracaro +2900*
Max Player +3000
*currently available as part of the wager pool as reported by the Lexington Courier-Journal; available via wager on the Field on JAZZ Sports
Tiz the Law is the dominant favorite for a reason. He has won all four of his races in 2020, including the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III), the Florida Derby (Grade I), the Belmont Stakes (Grade I) and the Travers Stakes (Garde I) this past fashion. He has not been challenged down the stretch in any of those four races, and he had reached a Beyer Speed Figure of 109 in the Travers Stakes, the best by any horse in the Kentucky Derby field.
Art Collector won wire to wire at the Ellis Park Derby – and if it were not for the COVID-19 pandemic, he would not be running at the Kentucky Derby. He made his debut for the year two weeks after the scheduled date, winning a seven-furlong race at Churchill Downs. He won the Blue Grass Stakes, beating Swiss Skydiver and posting a Beyer Speed Figure of 103.
Honor A.P. has five career starts and has never finished worse than first or second. He finished first at the Santa Anita Derby in June and then came in second to Thousand Words at the Shared Belief Stakes. Honor A.P. had a Beyer Speed Figure of 102 in both of those events. The Kentucky Derby is a quarter-mile longer than the Shared Belief Stakes, and that extra distance could play to Honor A.P.’s advantage.
Ny Traffic has five starts in 2020 – and just one victory, but no finish worse than third, and each field has contained Kentucky Derby contenders. His last race was the Haskell Stakes (Grade I) in July, where he came in second to Authentic while posting a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.
King Guillermo made his last prep race on May 2, at the Arkansas Derby. That is an immense layoff ahead of September 5. Since 1929 (when records started being kept) no Derby champion has ever had more of a break between races than six weeks. However, he has had some spectacular races, winning the Tampa Bay Derby at 49/1 odds and posting a second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby, over three lengths back of Nadal, who was then one of the Kentucky Derby favorites but now is out due to injury. It’s a crazy year in terms of all sports scheduling, so this could be the year when another trend is bucked.
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