Coming up with the right odds (and the right betting choices) for the Kentucky Derby is an operation that has a lot of complexity. You have a field of 20 three-year-old horses who have not been raced all that heavily, going 1 ¼ miles, which for some of them is their first race at that distance. There are some years when the favorite breezes to victory – and there are some years when shocking results happen. This was the case a year ago, when Country House won despite 65/1 odds thanks to a disqualification. In 2020, though, the race comes about four months later than usual thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, and so the horses this year have more experience than normal. However, one metric that has helped in the past and will help again is the ability to finish fast at a distance of 1 1/8 miles.
Let’s take a look at how this has worked out historically. Don’t forget to check the latest odds for winners in this year’s Kentucky Derby at JAZZ Sports.
Fast to the Finish: Analyzing Trends in Kentucky Derby Winners
Last Five Kentucky Derby Winners
| Kentucky Derby Winner | Last Prep Race | Final Time | Last 3/8 Mile Time |
| Country House (2019) | Arkansas Derby | 1:51.04 | :37.57 |
| Justify (2018) | Santa Anita Derby | 1:49.72 | :37.11 |
| Always Dreaming (2017) | Florida Derby | 1:47.47 | :36.56 |
| Nyquist (2016) | Florida Derby | 1:49.11 | :37.72 |
| American Pharaoh (2016) | Spiral Stakes | 1:48.52 | :37.81 |
In 2020, horses have had more chances to compete in multiple prep races at 1 1/8 miles, so the usual practice of looking at the final 3/8 mile from the last prep race. Here, though, with more races available, we can look at each contender’s top 3/8 finishing time.
| Horse | Race (Finish) | Final Time | Last 3/8 Mile Time |
| Tiz the Law | Belmont Stakes (1st) | 1:46.24 | :36.39 |
| Dr Post | Belmont Stakes (2nd) | 1:46.90 | :36.62 |
| Max Player | Belmont Stakes (3rd) | 1:47.16 | :36.74 |
| Thousand Words | Los Alamitos Derby (2nd) | 1:48.32 | :36.76 |
| Enforceable | Risen Star Stakes Division I (2nd) | 1:50.85 | :37.16 |
| Caracaro | Peter Pan Stakes (2nd) | 1:49.77 | :37.20 |
| Major Fed | Indiana Derby (2nd) | 1:49.51 | :37.26 |
| Art Collector | Ellis Park Derby (1st) | 1:48.02 | :37.32 |
| Honor A.P. | Santa Anita Derby (1st) | 1:48.97 | :37.63 |
| Necker Island | Indiana Derby (3rd) | 1:49.60 | :37.75 |
| Attachment Rate | Ellis Park Derby (2nd) | 1:48.56 | :37.78 |
| Rushie | Blue Grass Stakes (3rd) | 1:49.66 | :38.09 |
| Winning Impression | Ellis Park Derby (7th) | 1:50.27 | :38.19 |
| Sole Volante | Belmont Stakes (6th) | 1:48.93 | :38.21 |
| Authentic | Santa Anita Derby (2nd) | 1:49.48 | :38.39 |
| Finnick the Fierce | Blue Grass Stakes (7th) | 1:50.14 | :38.53 |
| King Guillermo | Arkansas Derby Division II (2nd) | 1:48.84 | :38.66 |
| Ny Traffic | Haskell Stakes (2nd) | 1:50.46 | :38.78 |
| Storm the Court | Arkansas Derby Division II (6th) | 1:50.34 | :40.07 |
Tiz the Law is the emphatic leader in this metric as well, 0.23 seconds ahead of the rest of the field, so if you’ve been wondering if Tiz the Law really is a lock, this is another number to add to his resume. It is worth noting, though, that the Belmont Stakes – shortened to 1 1/8 miles this year – was run with just one turn, instead of two. Most 1 1/8 mile races have a second turn, and it is harder to deliver that fast final fraction with the second turn. However, at the Travers Stakes on August 8, Tiz the Law finished the last 3/8 in :36.76, winning by 5 ½ lengths. So the number is convincing.
Matchup Betting?
Looking for some betting on horse racing that comes from a different angle? At JAZZ Sports we offer matchup betting – head to head between horses. For example, at Florida’s Gulfstream Park for August 28, here are the pairings:
Race #1
I Get It -150
Katiesdreamgirl +115
Race #1
New Delhi -135
Katiesdreamgirl +105
Race #2
Bastien Le Brown -135
Emit +105
Race #2
Silver Dollar City -215
Firstcadete +160
Race #3
Magical Cause -155
Gray Bullet +120
Race #3
El Gran Pichon -185
Discreet Danny +140
Race #4
Galileos Ballerina -165
Chez Paree +125
Race #4
Afficionado -165
Maries Melody +125
Race #5
Beyond Heavenly -150
Too Blessed +115
Race #5
Strong Azteca -140
Najwa +105
Race #6
Septemberten -220
Royal Duke +165
Race #6
Free Flay +105
New York Style -140
Race #7
Sarasota County -170
Small Fortune +130
Race #7
Cable Channel -170
Kobe Fifty Two +130
Race #8
Town Classic -185
Allurstra +140
Race #8
Ellas My Love +105
Stone Hands -135
Race #9
Samurai Fighter -160
Viburnum +120
Race #9
Blue Paynt -115
Zap Mama -115
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