As we inch our way through this bizarre summer toward the 2020 Kentucky Derby, conditions in the state of Kentucky continue to fluctuate. Cases of the COVID-19 virus continue to increase in number, prompting the governor to implement an order for residents to wear masks starting July 5. If cases do not stop surging, then the 146th Run for the Roses might take place without fans present.
Either way, though, the race will take place. We have three horses on the rise – and three horses who are starting to crater a bit – as you consider your wagering strategy.
Kentucky Derby Update: Six Horses to Watch
Three Horses on the Rise
Art Collector has won three straight races at open length since May 17 – winning by 2 ¾ lengths in a sprint at Churchill Downs on that day, winning a 1 1/16-mile race by 6 ½ lengths on June 13 at Churchill, and then cruising to a 3 ½-length victory at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Grade II) on July 11. His Equibase Speed Figures in those last two races (102 and 103 respectively) look competitive. He started his racing career on the dirt but has looked terrific in his last four starts, all on turf. He has won in races where he started out in the lead, races where he ran just off the leader, and races when he had to catch the leader from far behind. He’s versatile and is only getting better as of now.
Honor A.P. made Authentic look slow down the stretch at the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on June 6, pulling away to win by 2 ¾ lengths. Authentic did have a bad start, but Honor A.P. was able to establish distance on the stretch. Authentic won last week’s TVG.com Haskell Stakes, making Honor A.P.’s win at Santa Anita look even more impressive. In that race, he was able to find another level at the final turn and was well clear of the pack at the end, showing the stamina that he would need for 1 ¼ miles. His Equibase Speed Figure for that race was a career best 105.
Uncle Chuck won the Los Alamitos Derby and might be the top horse remaining in Bob Baffert’s stable who can race at Churchill Downs. He won by seven lengths in his career debut, a mile race at Santa Anita Park on June 12. He won the Los Alamitos Derby just 22 days later, rolling away by four lengths over 1 1/8 miles. His Equibase Speed Figures for those races were 96 and 98, respectively. However, he has not yet raced 1 ¼ miles, so even though he smoked his last furlong at Los Alamitos in 11.85 seconds, he still has some questions to answer.
Three Horses Cooling Down
Modernist won one of the divisions of the Risen Star Stakes and came in third at the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, but since then things have become less promising. He came in seventh at the Belmont Stakes, more than 20 lengths back of the lead, and then he came in fifth at the Peter Pan Stakes on July 16, twelve lengths off the lead. He has 70 points, so he’s likely to finish in the top 20, but he may not be much more than a footnote at this point.
Ete Indien also has plenty of points to qualify for Churchill Downs, with 74. However, his racing form started to deteriorate in March. He faded down the stretch in the Curlin Florida Derby (Grade I) in March, and then he started a one-mile allowance race on June 10 as the 7-10 favorite…only to finish in fourth place, 5 ¾ lengths off the lead. He has no published workouts to this point in July, so he may be swirling around the drain.
Sole Volante had an impressive win on June 10 in an allowance victory that saw him finish ahead of Ete Indien, Shivaree and Jesus’ Team. However, he laid an egg at the Belmont Stakes, looking listless in a sixth-place finish that saw him 15 ¾ lengths behind the lead. He does have 30 points toward Kentucky Derby qualification, but he has no published workouts since Belmont at this writing.
Keep a head’s distance from the competition with JAZZ Horse Racing’s expert betting advice. Take care and until next time!
